Thinking Cynefin

Cynefin Classification

Classify by cause-effect, then use only the matching response mode. Wrong-domain method is the failure mode.

When to Use

• Unsure whether to run a playbook, analyze, probe, or stabilize.
• A method keeps failing and domain mismatch is plausible.
• A novel or mixed problem needs approach selection before solution work.

When NOT to Use

• Domain and method are already agreed—execute.
• Task is finding a specific cause, not choosing an approach.
• Classification done; switch to the domain method—do not re-label endlessly.
• Pure mechanical edits with no approach uncertainty.

Procedure

1. State the unit. Name the decision, incident, or subsystem; if mixed, list separable parts.
2. Probe cause-effect. Is the link obvious, expert-analyzable, retrospective only, or imperceptible in turbulence? Check predictability, urgency, and probe safety.
3. Assign one domain per unit:

• Clear — obvious → Sense → Categorize → Respond with a runbook.
• Complicated — expert-analyzable → Sense → Analyze → Respond; several valid answers.
• Complex — emergent → Probe → Sense → Respond with safe-to-fail probes; amplify/dampen signals.
• Chaotic — no safe sensing time → Act → Sense → Respond; stabilize first.
• Disorder — unknown → split and classify each part.

1. Mismatch check. Reject Clear if its runbook fails; Complicated if analysis cannot predict; Complex if probing is unsafe; Chaotic once safe probing becomes possible.
2. Commit and stop. Output domain + first actions. Re-classify only on evidence of domain shift.

Stop when every unit has one domain, first actions, and a falsifier—or disorder is decomposed.

Output

unit: <decision/incident/part>
domain: clear | complicated | complex | chaotic | disorder
evidence: <cause-effect basis>
response_mode: <Sense-Categorize-Respond | Sense-Analyze-Respond | Probe-Sense-Respond | Act-Sense-Respond | decompose>
first_actions: <1-3 concrete steps>
falsifier: <what forces reclassification>
parts: <only if disorder>

Verification

• Falsify: Reliable prediction → not Complex. No safe probe → Chaotic. Working runbook → Clear.
• Stop: Stop classifying once the matched action is clear.
• Over-application guard: Do not call work Complex to avoid analysis or Complicated to avoid a standard fix. One label per unit; decompose multi-domain work.