Finance Based Pricing Advisor

Purpose

Evaluate the financial impact of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.

What this is: Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering.

What this is NOT: Comprehensive pricing strategy design, value-based pricing frameworks, willingness-to-pay research, competitive positioning, psychological pricing, packaging architecture, or monetization model selection. For those topics, see the future pricing-strategy-suite skills.

This skill assumes you have a specific pricing change in mind and need to evaluate its financial viability.

Input

Works best with: The pricing change on the table — increase, new tier, add-on, or discount — and current pricing. Also useful: Current ARPU/ARPA, conversion and churn baselines, NRR, and who's pushing for the change.

Anything supplied with the invocation itself — text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an appended ARGUMENTS: line — counts as answers already given. Use it and skip whatever it covers; don't re-ask.

Arriving empty-handed? That works too. The advisor opens by asking what change is proposed and what today's pricing looks like.

Example invocation: Evaluate raising our Pro plan from $49 to $59/seat; ARPU $52, monthly logo churn 1.8%, NRR 108%.

Key Concepts

The Pricing Impact Framework

A systematic approach to evaluate pricing changes financially:

1. Revenue Impact — How does this change ARPU/ARPA?

• Direct revenue lift from price increase
• Revenue loss from reduced conversion or increased churn
• Net revenue impact

1. Conversion Impact — How does this affect trial-to-paid or sales conversion?

• Higher prices may reduce conversion rate
• Better packaging may improve conversion
• Test assumptions

1. Churn Risk — Will existing customers leave due to price change?

• Grandfathering strategy (protect existing customers)
• Churn risk by segment (SMB vs. enterprise)
• Churn elasticity (how sensitive are customers to price?)

1. Expansion Impact — Does this create or block expansion opportunities?

• New premium tier = upsell path
• Usage-based pricing = expansion as customers grow
• Add-ons = cross-sell opportunities

1. CAC Payback Impact — Does pricing change affect unit economics?

• Higher ARPU = faster payback
• Lower conversion = higher effective CAC
• Net effect on LTV:CAC ratio

Pricing Change Types

Direct monetization changes:

• Price increase (raise prices for all customers or new customers only)
• New premium tier (create upsell path)
• Paid add-on (monetize previously free feature)
• Usage-based pricing (charge for consumption)

Discount strategies:

• Annual prepay discount (improve cash flow)
• Volume discounts (larger deals)
• Promotional pricing (temporary price reduction)

Packaging changes:

• Feature bundling (combine features into tiers)
• Unbundling (separate features into add-ons)
• Pricing metric change (seats → usage, or vice versa)

Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT)

• Not value-based pricing: This evaluates a proposed change, not "what should we charge?"
• Not WTP research: This analyzes impact, not "what will customers pay?"
• Not competitive positioning: This is financial analysis, not market positioning
• Not packaging architecture: This evaluates one change, not redesigning all tiers

When to Use This Framework

Use this when:

• You have a specific pricing change to evaluate (e.g., "Should we raise prices 20%?")
• You need to quantify revenue, churn, and conversion trade-offs
• You're deciding between pricing change options (test A vs. B)
• You need to present pricing change impact to leadership or board

Don't use this when:

• You're designing pricing strategy from scratch (use value-based pricing frameworks)
• You haven't validated willingness-to-pay (do customer research first)
• You don't have baseline metrics (ARPU, churn, conversion rates)
• Change is too small to matter (<5% price change, <10% of customers affected)

Facilitation Source of Truth

Use `workshop-facilitation` as the default interaction protocol for this skill.

It defines:

• session heads-up + entry mode (Guided, Context dump, Best guess)
• one-question turns with plain-language prompts
• progress labels (for example, Context Qx/8 and Scoring Qx/5)
• interruption handling and pause/resume behavior
• numbered recommendations at decision points
• quick-select numbered response options for regular questions (include Other (specify) when useful)

This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's domain logic.

Application

This interactive skill asks up to 4 adaptive questions, offering 3-5 enumerated options at decision points.

Step 0: Gather Context

Agent asks:

"Let's evaluate the financial impact of your pricing change. Please provide:

Current pricing:

• Current ARPU or ARPA
• Current pricing tiers (if applicable)
• Current monthly churn rate
• Current trial-to-paid conversion rate (if relevant)

Proposed pricing change:

• What change are you considering? (price increase, new tier, add-on, etc.)
• New pricing (if known)
• Affected customer segment (all, new only, specific tier)

Business context:

• Total customers (or MRR/ARR)
• CAC (to assess payback impact)
• NRR (to assess expansion context)

You can provide estimates if you don't have exact numbers."

Step 1: Identify Pricing Change Type

Agent asks:

"What type of pricing change are you considering?

1. Price increase — Raise prices for new customers, existing customers, or both
2. New premium tier — Add higher-priced tier with additional features
3. Paid add-on — Monetize a new or existing feature separately
4. Usage-based pricing — Charge for consumption (seats, API calls, storage, etc.)
5. Discount strategy — Annual prepay discount, volume pricing, or promotional pricing
6. Packaging change — Rebundle features, change pricing metric, or tier restructure

Choose a number, or describe your specific pricing change."

Based on selection, agent adapts questions:

If Option 1 (Price Increase):

Agent asks:

"Price increase details:

• Current price: $___
• New price: $___
• Increase: ___%

Who is affected?

1. New customers only (grandfather existing)
2. All customers (existing + new)
3. Specific segment (e.g., SMB only, new plan only)

When would this take effect?

• Immediately
• Next billing cycle
• Gradual rollout (test first)"

If Option 2 (New Premium Tier):

Agent asks:

"Premium tier details:

• Current top tier price: $___
• New premium tier price: $___
• Key features in premium tier: [list]

Expected adoption:

• What % of current customers might upgrade? ___%
• What % of new customers might choose premium? ___%

Cannibalization risk:

• Will premium tier cannibalize current top tier?"

If Option 3 (Paid Add-On):

Agent asks:

"Add-on details:

• Add-on name: ___
• Price: $___ /month or /user
• Currently free or new feature?

Expected adoption:

• What % of customers would pay for this? ___%
• Is this feature currently used (if free)?
• Will making it paid hurt retention?"

If Option 4 (Usage-Based Pricing):

Agent asks:

"Usage pricing details:

• Usage metric: (seats, API calls, storage, transactions, etc.)
• Pricing: $___ per [unit]
• Free tier or minimum? (e.g., first 1,000 API calls free)

Expected impact:

• Average customer usage: ___ units/month
• Expected ARPU change: $current → $new

Expansion potential: